Marlins 6 Braves 5

I have a confession to make -- I'm completely unable to watch close games in late/extra innings, particularly when the other team is at bat. It's just too stressful. Best I can do is check in periodically, which is what I did tonight. Also competing for my attention was the World Poker Tour season finale, featuring winner Tuan Le as well as Shana Hiatt's boobs. So there's that to consider.

Saw Andruw go yard, saw Reitsma blow up, kept seeing the Marlins get runners on base, only to check in ten minutes later to find we wriggled out of it again. They couldn't do it all night, though, so chalk up a tough loss for the good guys.

Furcal went down in a heap after trying to make a play, and it looked quite scary. We ruminate often about doing without him, but when the possibility arose I resolutely hoped he was okay. We'll know more tomorrow.

Once Upon A Time...

...the Braves had one of the best middle-infield prospects in the game. Because he hailed from a foreign land, the team was allowed to draft and sign him at the tender age of 16. He was soon anointed the shortstop of the future, and his every move was chronicled extensively. He spent his first couple of seasons in the rookie league as the organization waited patiently for his eventual development, and he was declared a top prospect by those who do such things.

A funny thing happened, though. His results as he progressed through the system began to stagnate, and his prospect status began to waver. We still knew his name, but declining results on the field reached the point that he was famous merely for being famous, not unlike Paris Hilton, or her erstwhile progenitor, Jo Anne Worley. Perhaps, though we will never know for sure, he began to flip through brochures offering training in insurance sales in preparation for his impending trip back home.

But a funny thing happened in 2005. A major league team had a need for his services and, defying the low expectations of the disillusioned, he stuck and began to produce. A dream denied morphed into a dream merely forestalled.

Sounds like Wilson Betemit, and it certainly could be. But this is a story about his predecessor. Good on ya, mate!

Braves 7 Marlins 2

This is really something. Once again the Braves get an unexpected sterling performance from a starting pitcher -- tonight it was Ramirez having to convince Cox that he was healthy enough to start after the strained groin he suffered last time out. He came through with a second straight "good Horacio" start -- 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 ER. Squint hard enough and he looks like Glavine; lots of junk outside, with the strategic "show me" fastball in on the hands now and then.

It must be said that every decision McKeon made blew up in his face. Twice in the fourth inning he played the infield back with a runner on third, looking for a double play. LaRoche and Estrada each grounded weakly to second -- the runner on third scored each time. Then, the truly inexplicable. Andruw at the plate in the eighth, one out, Furcal on second and Giles on first. They pull off a double-steal, and McKeon elects to intentionally walk Andruw. Sensible move, right?

Ordinarily I'd agree. But the count at the time of the steal was 2-2. I don't care how hot Andruw is -- to intentionally pass anyone after two strikes is just plain wrong. Cox proceeds to outmaneuver McKeon by pinch hitting Julio against the lefthander brought in to face LaRoche:

LaRoche vs. RHP: .267/.330/.466
Franco vs. LHP: .308/.390/.500

Franco, in the words of Brave-O-Matic buddy Jim Kallerman, pokes a long fly with the bases juiced to salt this one away. The Marlins ground crew punctuates the incompetence by proving themselves completely unable to manipulate the tarp over the infield during the eventual rain delay, and the game was called.

Rule clarification: The Braves were awarded the victory despite the fact that the Marlins didn't get fair ups in the bottom of the eighth, because the Braves were already leading 3-1 when the inning started. If the score had been, say, 1-1 after seven, and the Braves took the lead in the eighth, the game would have been suspended and completed tomorrow. All stats count.

Furcal had a helluva game -- double, triple, SB, and several fine plays in the field, especially throwing out Castillo with two outs and a runner on third in the seventh with the score 3-1. His failures still grate, but with the rest of the lineup producing we can absorb his iffy hitting. I could see dropping him to seventh or eighth in the batting order and recasting him as a modern-day Mark Belanger -- good field, no hit. That way his occasional successes at the bat can be viewed as a bonus. Just a thought.

Braves (3-0) 20 Orioles (0-3) 10

What did we learn this weekend?

1) Wilson Betemit is the everyday third baseman. The Braves wisely sent Marte back to Richmond to play every day when they brought up Colon. Betemit continued to produce, going 5 for 11 in the series, and certainly deserves to play every day. Now, would it be too much to ask that he bat a little higher in the order? When Chipper comes back, we will have what is known as a "good problem" to have -- how to get everyone playing time.

2) Roman Colon can pitch a little. As impressive and unexpected as Davies' first few starts as well as Sosa's have been, Colon's performance on Saturday was a shock and revelation. He'll get another start on Thursday, and we'll see if he can build on his success. His prospect status hasn't jibed with his performance before now, but now we see what the fuss was about. Much like Rick Mahler's emergency start in '91, if we eke out this division by one game, this is one we'll remember.

3) Andruw Jones is an All-Star. Unthinkable two weeks ago, undeniable now. This is '99 Chipper stuff that Andruw is doing. His 948 OPS is fourth among NL outfielders, and his .597 SLG trails only Derrek Lee and Pujols. It's not just his hitting, either -- he seems to have stepped up the defense as well. Balls that he was just missing a few weeks ago are now finding their way into his glove. Viva Andruw!

4) Davies is plainly tired and not ready. His command has suffered badly since throwing 230 pitches combined in consecutive starts, then going on three days rest. He's a good candidate to be sent down when Hudson returns -- he looks like he needs a breather.

5) John Smoltz decides how long John Smoltz pitches. How else to explain his presence on the mound in the ninth inning of an 8-1 game, with 8 pitchers in the bullpen? I don't trust them either, but come on. That said, Smoltzie was keeping us in the race a few weeks ago, and now the rest of the team is rolling right along with him.

Marlins 8 Braves 0

The Good: The Braves took the series from their (in the opinion of Brave-O-Matic) chief competition. Sosa looked fine again, with the exception of a hanging curve to Cabrera in the sixth inning when he was visibly tired. He may be a five-inning guy, and we'll take that from him.

The Bad: Ummm, this game. Can't say we didn't see it coming, with Dontrelle Willis having his typically great first half of the season. The offense couldn't get anything going at all, though I liked the way Kelly Johnson hung in there against a very tough lefty. Adam Bernero is horrible; Dank Lob, ridiculous.

By the way, Julio no longer has the record for oldest player to steal a base. No, Rod Carew didn't come out of retirement -- it turns out that Arlie Latham stole a base in 1909 at the ripe old age of 49. We'll revisit this in September 2007, as Julio takes his lead off first base against Matt Belisle....

Nasty rumor: Roman Colon is on his way back from Richmond, and will get the start on Saturday vs. Bruce Chen and the Orioles. Other matchups: Davies vs. one Hayden Penn on Friday, Smoltz vs. Rodrigo Lopez on Sunday.

Braves 8 Marlins 0

The Braves got their wish in this series -- two wins heading into a disadvantageous Sosa vs. Willis matchup tomorrow. Balanced contributions from the offense complimented a second straight shutout by the pitching staff. The Baby Braves are taking it to the veteran Marlins so far.

We got the good Horacio tonight. He went five innings and allowed only three hits and one walk before exiting with a strained groin. He did a great job keeping the Marlins off-balance, and we hope he's not hurt too badly. Considering he's now our #2 starter and all. Perfect innings by Gryboski, Boyer, and Brower preceded another ninth inning tightrope walk by Dank Lob, who was bailed out by two nice Giles plays to avoid the ignominy of failing to close out an 8-run lead.

Kelly Johnson reached base four times on three singles and a walk -- in the last 8 games he's gone from .033/.194/.033 to .246/.387/.426. Andruw chipped in with his nightly monster home run -- this one the first to reach the Lexus level in left field. He's gone from abject disappointment to sniffing around an All-Star berth, though he's not there yet.

Braves 5 Marlins 0

Sometimes all you need is John Smoltz.

That's something we used to say a lot, but incredibly it's been over 6 years (since April 30, 1999 to be exact) since Smoltzie pitched a shutout. Think about that -- back when Smoltz was 32 and at the top of his game one night against the Reds, you could have made a lot of money betting that he wouldn't pitch another shutout until age 38, but would have 154 saves in the meantime.

Tonight it took 123 pitches, but he never seemed to labor. Brave-O-Matic is almost prepared to turn off the old pitch-count meter on him -- but, with all the injuries, we're counting mightily on that right elbow, so forgive us for a bit of a pause at that number.

Speaking of bar bets, here's a real stumper: Who was the Braves' starting 3B during Smoltz's last shutout? Answer below:





Ozzie Guillen

Information courtesy of, and thank God for, Retrosheet. I could spend hours on that website. Go there now. Yes, you.

Reds 11 Braves 8

Honestly, I didn't hold out much hope for this game, with Davies coming off two straight bad outings and on three days rest. He did about what you would expect against the powerful Reds lineup -- 11 baserunners and 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings. Most other teams would have run and hidden with the 7-2 lead they were spotted, but the Reds pitching staff is far too generous for that. The Braves manages to tie the score at 7, then again at 8, but our own bullpen reared it's ugly head repeatedly, concluding with Junior's 3-run HR off the increasingly execrable Adam Bernero to provide the final margin.

Many of our hitters managed to get well in the series, which the Braves took 3-1. Hopefully they can keep it up against stiffer competition, as the Marlins visit for a 3-game series starting Tuesday. Looks like Smoltz vs. Burnett, Ramirez vs. Moehler, and Sosa vs. Willis.

Braves 5 Reds 2

Smoltz was in command tonight. He shut down the powerful Reds, allowing 2 solo HRs and only two other hits (no walks for the third straight start) in 8 innings with 9 Ks. All his pitches were working, and he was throwing free and easy -- quite the departure from what we've seen lately from our other starters. Smoltz had such rhythm and confidence in his pitch selection -- at one point he shook off Estrada twice, then was already into his pitching motion as he nodded to the correct sign, a pitch that resulted in a strikeout. No slouch at the plate, either -- 2-3 with a sacrifice, and the one out was blistered to deep center.

Furcal and Giles homered, and we got RBIs from Marte, Estrada (who's been hitting very well), and Jordan. Our other resident oldster, Julio Franco, had two hits and TWO stolen bases, mostly because Matt Belisle couldn't be bothered to hold him on base. I think he had a six-step jump off first and an eight-step jump off second. Someday someone might steal a base at an older age than Julio, but I'll wager nobody 46 or older will ever break his record of 2 SBs in a game.

More Roster Moves

Rumor has it that Hudson will be the latest starter to go on the DL, with a recurrence of the oblique strain that put him on the shelf last year. Here we go again. The Braves may bring up Chuck James to take his place in the rotation, which would leave Billy McCarthy and Jeff Francoeur as our only remaining minor league players.

Jim Brower has also arrived, fresh from being released by the Giants just one-half season removed from two good years in their bullpen. His ERA this year is a robust 6.53, suggesting that heavy usage last season (89 games) may have caught up with him. But there are some good indicators hidden in the numbers. His K/9 is 7.42, which would place him second on the Braves staff behind Davies. Also his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is .377, so he might have been a bit unlucky so far. On the other hand, giving up 5 HRs in 30.1 innings would be evidence that he's just getting hammered. All in all, he stands a good chance of being an upgrade, and is far preferable to other castoffs such as Danny Graves.

Expect Brower to replace Hudson on the active roster, with James being called up to make a start on Saturday. He'll replace Boyer or Vasquez -- it couldn't possibly matter less which one.

UPDATE: Pete says that the plan is now to start Sosa and Davies on 3 days rest, on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. The off-day on Monday then allows everyone full rest. This strikes me as a very bad idea -- Davies has had two bad starts in a row after throwing 119 pitches on June 4, and Sosa hasn't been in starter shape. Why risk further injury for the dubious honor of keeping Boyer and Vasquez? Hopefully they'll change their mind and bring up James instead.

Rangers 9 Braves 5

A second consecutive weak start by Davies and a team-wide inability (besides LaRoche) to hit with runners in scoring position added up to a loss to a Texas team that seemed amenable to a Braves comeback. The bullpen did a decent job of holding the Rangers at bay after a 5-run 1st, and we chipped away until it was 7-5 in the seventh, but could get no closer.

One interesting tidbit being reported is that the Braves started seven rookies (Orr, Johnson, Langerhans, Marte, McCann, Betemit, and Davies), the most since October 1, 1978 (Eddie Miller, Glenn Hubbard, Bob Beall, Larry Whisenton, Chico Ruiz, Bruce Benedict, Mickey Mahler). My question is, when was the last time we, or any team, started seven rookies in a game before September, when rosters expand? Incidentally, if you include Vasquez, Boyer, and John Foster (yes, he's technically still a rookie), the Braves played a total of 10 rookies.

Furcal sat out again yesterday -- Brave-O-Matic has come around to supporting a trade of Furcal. Betemit has outperformed him (looking comfortable doing it) at the plate to the point that we can absorb the defensive hit. Marte appears to have much more range than Chipper at 3B, making the switch to Betemit easier. Of course, Chipper will eventually be back -- our groundball pitching staff may not be so sanguine about having Chipper and Betemit backing them up....

Braves 7 Rangers 2

The game began with a WTF moment when the batting order was announced. Kelly Johnson, with his .0something batting average leading off, and Betemit's .400+ OBP in the 9 spot? What in the name of Omar Moreno was Cox thinking?

His faith was justified, though, as KJ came through with a single, double, and a game-changing 3-run HR to help power the Braves to an impressive victory over the Rangers. Johnson's BA is now all the way up to .132 -- watch out, Ichiro!

The other baby Braves contributed as well -- Marte had an RBI Baltimore chop and another fine defensive play, Langerhans scored after an HBP, and Betemit singled and scored.

Jorge Sosa, pressed into an emergency start, was nothing short of brilliant after allowing a 1st inning 2-run HR to Teixeira, mixing a 95 MPH heater with a hammer curve that was his out pitch for several of his 7 strikeouts. It must be said that he benefitted greatly from Jim Joyce's high strike zone, but Cox is probably breathing easier about starting him again this Sunday vs. the Reds.

And finally, Julio. During a 5th inning at bat, his bat slipped (again), and flew into the stands, hitting a young fan in the back of the neck. Julio was obviously concerned, as he looked back into the stands after each succeeding pitch. He proceeded to crush a home run to center field, and before going to the dugout, walked over to the stands to talk to the injured fan. The Ranger crowd gave him a standing ovation for his concern -- just more evidence that Julio is still the man. Who doesn't love Julio?

A's 7 Braves 3

So this is what it's like to have a bad team. Brave-O-Matic is old enough to remember the dark days of the '70s and '80s, and while the roster composition is different now (with the rookies these days surrounded by injured good players rather than healthy mediocrities), the effect is the same -- many dispiriting losses. This one especially so, as one of our remaining rotation horses is pitching like he's hiding an injury. What else is new. Might Smoltz turn out to be our healthiest starter after all? I probably shouldn't even bring that up....

Andruw is on one of his tears, but right now he's just serving to keep games respectable. Here is the list of active players who a) were on the opening day roster, and b) have performed to, or exceeded, expectations:

1. Smoltz
2. Reitsma
3. Betemit
4. Langerhans
5. Estrada

and, in another sense,

6. Jordan

Rumors of Aubrey Huff have once again wafted through the breeze. One thing's for sure, we need to bolster the roster soon in order to stay anywhere near contention. The primary concern is staying close to the Marlins, as I don't see the Nationals or Phillies keeping up their recent pace. M Norman says the Devil Rays are asking for Marte, in which case I think it's time to talk to the Reds again about Austin Kearns. They don't know what they're doing over there -- they could have dealt from a position of strength in the offseason because of the emergence of Wily Mo. Instead they chose to break camp with four starting outfielders. Now they've demoted 25-year-old with a lifetime ML OPS of 815 in favor of a 26-year-old with a lifetime minor league OPS of 740. Time to buy low on Kearns.

Whither Chipper?

In Will Carroll's "Under the Knife" column over at Baseball Prospectus, he filed this report yesterday:

"Chipper Jones still hasn't met with the foot specialist--that comes Friday--though the Braves are clearer on where they stand. (Get it? Stand … foot … never mind.) Jones will be out for a month if he manages to avoid surgery, two months if he has it. Expect the surgery, because trying to rehab it might put him in the same place after the month has gone by. Jones is many things, but sources reminded me today that patient is not among them."

Let's say Chipper opts for surgery and is out for two months. Marte will then have about 150 ABs to prove himself, and my guess is he'll do okay. What happens when Chipper comes back, assuming no other roster moves in the meantime? A few scenarios:

1) Chipper to 3B, Marte to Richmond
The Good -- Chipper reclaims the position at which he is most comfortable, and Marte continues to play every day and develop.
The Bad -- Should Marte prove capable of handling big league pitching (we'll use BP's 50th percentile projection for him -- .253/.335/.466), his spot would be manned by someone less capable of producing runs.

2) Chipper to 3B, Marte to LF
The Good -- More production in the lineup, with Marte replacing Johnson or Jordan or Orr or Betemit or McCarthy or whoever they throw out there in desperation.
The Bad -- In anticipation of needing Marte in LF, the Braves tried him there in spring training and again in Richmond earlier this season, and abandoned the experiment both times. Evidently it was brutal.

3) Chipper to LF, Marte to 3B
The Good -- Same as #2, only backwards
The Bad -- Chipper is dead-set against moving back to the outfield, where he was pretty bad. With the foot problem factored in, this won't happen.

4) Chipper to 1B, Marte to 3B
The Good -- This would enable us to include LaRoche (a tradeable commodity) in a deal for help in the bullpen or LF.
The Bad -- Chipper's never played the position, and 1B might actually be harder on the feet than 3B. We lose a player who's been cheap and reasonably effective.

5) Chipper to 3B, Marte to 1B
The Good -- Same as above, with added bonus that Chipper (the veteran) doesn't switch positions to accommodate a rookie.
The Bad -- Same as above, with added onus that Julio's role diminishes (Marte bats righthanded).

6) Chipper to 3B, Marte to bench
The Good -- Obviously, a better bench, and the least disruption to the everyday lineup.
The Bad -- Marte needs to be playing, not sitting.

Of the above, I think #5 is the gutsiest option to pursue. Marte can approximate LaRoche's production, but we'll suffer in the field. But it's the best way for us to significantly upgrade elsewhere. However, this assumes that we're still in the hunt. If we're not, no reason to trade a young, cheap, and decent player. Which brings me to #7.

7) Marte to 3B, Chipper to the Angels

Before the season, I advocated trading Chipper if the Braves fall out of contention. He's expensive and he's in decline, both in terms of health and production. We will be hard-pressed to stay competitive without him, and all the events of the last couple of months is beginning to give this season a "the future is now" feel. If he's able to return healthy, we may very well showcase him for a trade.

Thoughts?

Angels 8 Braves 4

I'll be the first to say I'm excited to see all the prospects get their first shot, but tonight was an object lesson in what happens when too many first shots are being, um, shooted. Exhibit A was Brayan Pena, who evidently does not read Brave-O-Matic. First, to M Norman's chagrin, he gets called up from Richmond. Then, as soon as I pay him a compliment on his defense, he unveils his throwing arm. What was that three-quarters motion about? I have to think we've tried to teach him differently. Maybe he was just nervous and forgot his mechanics, I don't know. Anyway, the Angels took quick note of this and stole five bases.

Also not contributing was Kelly Johnson and Andy Marte. Marte I'll forgive, but the Johnson experiment is going quite badly so far. You want to show confidence in the guy, but .037 is .037. I've advocated Marte in the outfield for just this season, but supposedly that experiment didn't go well at Richmond, and Chipper's injury begs the question anyway. Anyone for McCarthy?

Speaking of Chipper, it sounds very bad. If you can't get a clear diagnosis, it's impossible to know how to proceed. We may be without him for most of the season. Hard to see how we'll keep pace.

Brian McCann

Another from the Kiddie Corps!

In a comment on M Norman's Brayan Pena post, I wrote, "But McCann is putting up some big numbers: .277/.337/.487 at Myrtle Beach is TOUGH to do, and now he's going .297/.364/.564 at AA Mississippi. He could be Lance Parrish, but I agree that he's pegged for 2007, meaning Estrada or Pena will be trade bait after next season."

So much for my prognostication skills, as the Braves have called up McCann and will likely put Perez back on the DL. McCann has cooled a bit from his hot start -- he's now at .265/.359/.476 -- and I'm a little concerned about starting his arbitration service clock so early. But I'm told that the clock stops once he's sent back down, and we are truly desperate at this point. I assume Pena will get most or all of the starts until Estrada is ready. Brayan isn't hitting, but he looks good behind the plate. We'll settle for a healthy catch-and-throw guy for now.

Braves 3 Angels 2

The devil over my left shoulder had a dream scenario about this game -- Cox announces that the surprise starter is none other than Dan Kolb, who proceeds (after walking the leadoff hitter on four pitches, natch) to plunk Erstad. Erstad charges the mound, but rather than stop him, the Bravos form a schoolyard ring and enjoy the mutual pummeling!

Alas, it was not to be, but the way the game actually played out was very satisfying. Who would have figured that a June game against the Angels would have a big-game aura, but this one did. The home team is racked with injuries, a summerlong, five-team battle royale is taking shape, and the opponent is suddenly and viscerally hated. Our least effective starter pitching in front of a AAA lineup, but lo and behold the Braves looked sharp.

Horacio threw a "purpose" pitch behind Erstad, and the issue was put aside. He pitched his best game of the season just when we needed it, and we got just enough offense and typically fine glovework to pull this one out. The debut of Andy Marte got second billing, but he came through with a sac fly RBI and a fine scoop and throw that Chipper has long done so well. Reitsma looked great in the ninth inning, putting to rest for one day our eternal bullpen worries.

Giles was reportedly upset about not starting, saying "I don't know what's going on", but Betemit has earned playing time. It was a gutsy move by Cox to dare to further tweak an already depleted lineup, but expect Giles back tomorrow. He doesn't seem the type to sulk.

Braves 5 Nats 4

Smoltz wasn't at his best today, but got the win when the Braves and Nats switched scripts and the good guys scored a late-inning comeback victory. The bottom of the lineup was the story today, as Estrada continued his good work of late with a single and HR (up to .276 now), Langerhans doubled twice, and Betemit reached base four times, including a game-tying, two-run HR in the eighth. Julio followed with a walk and was pinch-hit for by Pete Orr, who proceeded to run like a banshee on a steal of second and scoring from there on a shallow single by Giles. Reitsma then notched his second two-inning save in a week.

Betemit started when Furcal was scratched due to an ailing shoulder. The cognoscenti over at Braves Journal are supposing that Wilson might have been showcased for a potential trade to the Twins in exchange for an outfielder.

From a St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist today:

"The Atlanta Braves need an outfielder, and Braves superscout Jim Fregosi was at the Metrodome for Tuesday night's Twins-Indians game. Twins general manager Terry Ryan declined comment on the possibility of a deal."

Betemit for Ford? Furcal for Hunter or Jones? Hmmm....thoughts, anybody?