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Friday, June 10, 2005

Whither Chipper?

In Will Carroll's "Under the Knife" column over at Baseball Prospectus, he filed this report yesterday:

"Chipper Jones still hasn't met with the foot specialist--that comes Friday--though the Braves are clearer on where they stand. (Get it? Stand … foot … never mind.) Jones will be out for a month if he manages to avoid surgery, two months if he has it. Expect the surgery, because trying to rehab it might put him in the same place after the month has gone by. Jones is many things, but sources reminded me today that patient is not among them."

Let's say Chipper opts for surgery and is out for two months. Marte will then have about 150 ABs to prove himself, and my guess is he'll do okay. What happens when Chipper comes back, assuming no other roster moves in the meantime? A few scenarios:

1) Chipper to 3B, Marte to Richmond
The Good -- Chipper reclaims the position at which he is most comfortable, and Marte continues to play every day and develop.
The Bad -- Should Marte prove capable of handling big league pitching (we'll use BP's 50th percentile projection for him -- .253/.335/.466), his spot would be manned by someone less capable of producing runs.

2) Chipper to 3B, Marte to LF
The Good -- More production in the lineup, with Marte replacing Johnson or Jordan or Orr or Betemit or McCarthy or whoever they throw out there in desperation.
The Bad -- In anticipation of needing Marte in LF, the Braves tried him there in spring training and again in Richmond earlier this season, and abandoned the experiment both times. Evidently it was brutal.

3) Chipper to LF, Marte to 3B
The Good -- Same as #2, only backwards
The Bad -- Chipper is dead-set against moving back to the outfield, where he was pretty bad. With the foot problem factored in, this won't happen.

4) Chipper to 1B, Marte to 3B
The Good -- This would enable us to include LaRoche (a tradeable commodity) in a deal for help in the bullpen or LF.
The Bad -- Chipper's never played the position, and 1B might actually be harder on the feet than 3B. We lose a player who's been cheap and reasonably effective.

5) Chipper to 3B, Marte to 1B
The Good -- Same as above, with added bonus that Chipper (the veteran) doesn't switch positions to accommodate a rookie.
The Bad -- Same as above, with added onus that Julio's role diminishes (Marte bats righthanded).

6) Chipper to 3B, Marte to bench
The Good -- Obviously, a better bench, and the least disruption to the everyday lineup.
The Bad -- Marte needs to be playing, not sitting.

Of the above, I think #5 is the gutsiest option to pursue. Marte can approximate LaRoche's production, but we'll suffer in the field. But it's the best way for us to significantly upgrade elsewhere. However, this assumes that we're still in the hunt. If we're not, no reason to trade a young, cheap, and decent player. Which brings me to #7.

7) Marte to 3B, Chipper to the Angels

Before the season, I advocated trading Chipper if the Braves fall out of contention. He's expensive and he's in decline, both in terms of health and production. We will be hard-pressed to stay competitive without him, and all the events of the last couple of months is beginning to give this season a "the future is now" feel. If he's able to return healthy, we may very well showcase him for a trade.

Thoughts?

1 Comments:

Blogger Sam Bass said...

There would be a salary dump aspect to any trade of Chipper, so a by-product of any trade would be additional salary flexibility in the off-season.

5:37 PM  

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