Brave-O-Matic

"Mmmmm...that's good Brave!"

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Great News! Rockies 10 Braves 5

Listen when I tell you that monuments of appreciation shall be constructed to this, the most glorious loss in Atlanta Braves history. I do not exaggerate when I say that accounts of this game will be etched onto a plethora of tableaux that shall carpet the landscape as far as the eye can see. Millions of years in the future, when the human race is extinct and the monkey-men arrive in their spaceships from the as-yet-unnamed tenth planet (which will eventually be called Blarxon, by the way), one intrepid (some would say impudent, but not in this space, sir) monklet will endeavor to unravel the mystery of this "Box Score". Much of what he reads will remain an enigma, of course, but he will be able to proclaim one thing loud and clear:

"Well, that should just about do it for Dan Kolb."

Hats Off to Mr. Cox

Some of our faithful readers out there may have no recollection of the Braves finishing anywhere but first, as has now happened 14 times in a row. Let me tell you there were dark days -- Brave-O-Matic was there when you could yell at the best Brave on the field "Dion, you the man!" from the upper deck and have him hear you and acknowledge you. Dion James, that is. Brave-O-Matic was there when Oddibe McDowell was warming up in the bullpen, about to enter a 23-8 humiliation. And Brave-O-Matic was there for Omar Moreno, Jim Presley, Pepe Frias, Rowland Office, Marty Clary, German Jimenez and, worst of all, Andres Thomas.

So even as the elation of 1991 mellows into the quiet satisfaction of 2005, remembering those names (there are others -- I could go on) staves off any possibility of numbness to this team's many and varied accomplishments. Even so, this one stands out. Never before had we faced such depth in our division. Never before had we lost 60 percent of our rotation to injury. And never before has Bobby Cox had to cobble together a winning team from a roster including, at some time or another, 17 rookie players (and three rookie bloggers to boot). It says here that no other manager today -- not Torre, not LaRussa, none of them -- could have done it. Congratulations, Mr. Cox. As always, it's been a pleasure.

Sunday, September 25, 2005

Playoff Roster

Thanks to a Braves win and Phillies loss, the lead is back to 5 and the magic number down to 3. With the postseason now virtually assured, it's time to start working out a playoff roster. I'm going to assume an 11-man pitching staff.

First, the sure things:

C -- Estrada, McCann
1B -- LaRoche, Julio
2B -- Giles, Orr
SS -- Furcal
3B -- Chipper, Betemit
OF -- Langerhans, Andruw, Francouer
SP -- Smoltz, Hudson, Sosa, Thomson
RP -- Farnsworth, Reitsma, Boyer, Davies, McBride, Foster

This leaves two position player slots and one pitcher slot. Horacio is the likely 11th man, which, despite the fact that I don't much like him, saves us the embarassment of having to choose between Brower and Kolb. Thank goodness Thomson had a good outing yesterday.

The position player battle will involve Hollandsworth, KJ, and Jordan for the remaining two slots. That is, unless Cox does his goofy three-catcher thing and takes M Norman's fave, Brayan Pena. Let's just press on, hoping not.

KJ is so buried right now he looks up to find other, more recently buried people. Cox seems to have settled on Hollandsworth, despite the fact that he's no better. Leaving the last spot between KJ and Jordan. I can't quite believe I'm saying this, but there's not much sense in having two lefthanded outfielders on the bench. The postseason roster is all about matchups, so this arm of Brave-O-Matic is officially endorsing Brian Jordan for the final roster spot.

(shiver)

Thursday, September 22, 2005

News Flash -- We're Filthy Rednecks

I'm just bursting with civic pride these days. First, Vernon Jones kicks the Red Cross out of DeKalb County, and now this. Here's the short version, in case you don't feel like telling the AJC your life story in order to get an account:

"Even as the Atlanta Braves close in on their 14th consecutive division title, their fans have already cinched up the top spot in another competition — worst public restroom hygiene in the nation.

The results of an annual survey released by the American Society of Microbiology on Wednesday reported that the hygiene at Atlanta's Turner Field was the worst of any venue in the 6,300 public restrooms monitored last month.

According to ASM, 37 percent of men monitored at Turner Field left the bathroom without washing while 16 percent of the women did."

We're Brave-O-Matic, and THIS is our South!

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Phillies 10 Braves 6

This game turned quickly from one that I couldn't wait to write about into one I just can't bear to. Pitching problems continue, while we saw some good signs from our mediocre veterans (Estrada, LaRoche). Bah.

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Braves 4 Phillies 1

Of all the surprise contributors to the Braves success this year, is there anyone more surprising than Jorge Sosa? Seemingly every single start he walks a tightrope, on the verge of getting blown out, but he wriggles out of it every time. Next thing you know, he's got a 2.45 ERA and might just end up with 15 wins. 15! He's not going to get enough innings to qualify for the ERA crown, but right now he's only .03 ERA points and 10 innings or so from having the second best ERA in the major leagues. As A Brett said, he should be a lock for the third starting slot in the playoffs, and I'm starting to think he can actually do us some good in the postseason.

The biggest play in this game was a bad third strike call on Burrell with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth, with the Braves clinging to a 1-0 lead. LaRoche then made a great play on a Ryan Howard screamer, then the good guys proceeded to push across a few more. Thanks mainly to poor control by the Phillie bullpen, which Charlie Manuel just couldn't wait to employ. Lidle got pulled after only 58 pitches, having given up just one first-inning run. He walked off the mound as though someone was playing a joke on him. Sorry, Cory, the only joke is the Phils chance at overtaking the Bravos. Magic number down to 6.

Friday, September 02, 2005

Andruw for MVP redux

These last two games may provide a tipping point in the discussion -- once the national media headlines begin to include the words "Andruw" and "MVP" in the same sentence, it will take on a life of it's own. So, the obvious question is, does he deserve to win?

There are four position players with some chance to win (sorry, Morgan Ensberg). They are, as mentioned yesterday, Lee, Pujols, Cabrera, and Andruw. Here's one way to approach their offensive contributions:

(TB + BB + HBP + SB + SF) - (CS + DP) / PA

In other words, total bases responsible for, divided by plate appearances. It's nothing fancy like VORP or EqA or any of that stuff, but it's mine, so I like it.

Lee 416/571 = .729
Pujols 390/584 = .668
Andruw 348/564 = .617
Cabrera 337/566 = .595

Surprising no one, Derrek Lee has been far and away the best offensive performer in the NL this year. Pujols is a solid second. Andruw gets the nod over Cabrera for third.

Now, the defense, which for our purposes here will be just conjecture. Obviously, once we take defense into account Cabrera, already lagging slightly, can be summarily dismissed, leaving Andruw with the challenge of making up 42 bases (or 10.5 runs) on Pujols and 68 (17 runs) on Lee. Think of it this way -- does Andruw save a base every third game that the typical CF does not (enough to catch Pujols)? What about every other game (enough to catch Lee)?

I don't know, but my guess is maybe on the former, probably not on the latter, making my ballot:

1. Lee
2T. Pujols and Andruw
4. Cabrera
5. Clemens

But, you know what? I'm going to give Andruw a subjective bonus point merely for being a center fielder in the first place, while the others are merely first baseman. The new, improved Brave-O-Matic MVP scoreboard:

1. Lee
2. Andruw
3. Pujols
4. Cabrera
5. Clemens