Andruw for MVP redux

These last two games may provide a tipping point in the discussion -- once the national media headlines begin to include the words "Andruw" and "MVP" in the same sentence, it will take on a life of it's own. So, the obvious question is, does he deserve to win?

There are four position players with some chance to win (sorry, Morgan Ensberg). They are, as mentioned yesterday, Lee, Pujols, Cabrera, and Andruw. Here's one way to approach their offensive contributions:

(TB + BB + HBP + SB + SF) - (CS + DP) / PA

In other words, total bases responsible for, divided by plate appearances. It's nothing fancy like VORP or EqA or any of that stuff, but it's mine, so I like it.

Lee 416/571 = .729
Pujols 390/584 = .668
Andruw 348/564 = .617
Cabrera 337/566 = .595

Surprising no one, Derrek Lee has been far and away the best offensive performer in the NL this year. Pujols is a solid second. Andruw gets the nod over Cabrera for third.

Now, the defense, which for our purposes here will be just conjecture. Obviously, once we take defense into account Cabrera, already lagging slightly, can be summarily dismissed, leaving Andruw with the challenge of making up 42 bases (or 10.5 runs) on Pujols and 68 (17 runs) on Lee. Think of it this way -- does Andruw save a base every third game that the typical CF does not (enough to catch Pujols)? What about every other game (enough to catch Lee)?

I don't know, but my guess is maybe on the former, probably not on the latter, making my ballot:

1. Lee
2T. Pujols and Andruw
4. Cabrera
5. Clemens

But, you know what? I'm going to give Andruw a subjective bonus point merely for being a center fielder in the first place, while the others are merely first baseman. The new, improved Brave-O-Matic MVP scoreboard:

1. Lee
2. Andruw
3. Pujols
4. Cabrera
5. Clemens