Brave-O-Matic Midseason Grades (Part 1)
Starting pitchers
John Smoltz -- Among ERA qualifiers, Smoltz ranks 5th in pitcher VORP, behind only Clemens, Willis, Oswalt, and Pedro. He's 3rd in IP (which is more than a little scary), tied for 4th in ERA, and 8th in Ks. Maybe we should have listened when he said he's been ready to start for two years now. He absolutely must stay healthy for the Braves to have a shot at winning #14. Grade: A+
Tim Hudson -- His oblique strain will keep him out for a couple more weeks. Considering this was a pre-existing condition that hasn't gone away, there's much cause for concern going forward. He's shown flashes of his old form, but his vaunted control has deserted him on several occasions, and his K rate of 5.36 per nine innings indicates that he's not the pitcher he once was. Grade: B-
Mike Hampton -- Another injury story, of course. "Forearm strain" is a sufficiently nebulous diagnosis that it's anyone's guess how to treat it or when it might get better. When healthy, Hampton was having a marvelous season, although he was doing it with mirrors somewhat. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .235, which means he was getting very lucky, and also has been the primary beneficiary of Furcal's defense. He's still not striking anyone out, but he's not walking anyone either, and is keeping the ball in the park. He won't have a 1.83 ERA at season's end, but he's crafty enough to be effective anyhow. Grade: Inc. (A- while healthy)
John Thomson -- He's hurt; stop me if you've heard this before. Another pitcher having a fine season -- along with Hampton, his early season success was a carryover from his post-All-Star performance last season. Although Hudson and Hampton are slated to return more quickly, I have greater confidence in Thomson being able to continue his success once he comes back. The finger ligament injury was a freak thing, but surgery should take care of it with no lasting effects, and presumably he's been able to stay in good shape in the meantime. After a slow start to his Braves tenure, Thomson has quietly asserted himself as a rotation rock, and here's hoping he decides to stick around. He's a Brave-O-Matic favorite. Grade: Inc. (B+ while healthy)
Horacio Ramirez -- Today's start against the Phillies exposed the main problem with Ramirez; that being, if you can't miss bats, sooner or later the bats are going to put a hurting on you. Horacio's K/9 rate of 2.79 ranks dead last among the 111 major league pitchers with enough innings to qualify, as does his 0.85 K/BB rate. That combination makes it impossible to succeed consistently. He's reached his ceiling as a major league pitcher. Comparisons to Glavine are completely off-base -- Glavine was striking out more than twice as many batters as Horacio at a comparable age. Health and confidence are Horacio's main attributes. If he can ride run support to 13 wins this year, perhaps the Braves could trick someone into taking him after the season -- the Tigers used to have entire pitching staffs of Horacio clones. Grade: D+
Kyle Davies -- Has encounted some tough times of late, but that can be attributed to a heavy workload at a tender age. He's got four quality pitches, but obviously needs more seasoning. I've harped enough about his usage pattern, because we've needed him, but he should be sent back to Richmond for the rest of the year, and monitored carefully, as soon as we can do so. He's done nothing to sully his rep as a top prospect. Grade: B
"Starting pitchers"
Jorge Sosa -- Sosa was quietly doing good work in medium-leverage situations out of the bullpen when our spate of injuries pressed him into starting duty, and he has not disappointed. Given four starts, all against quality lineups (Rangers, Reds, Marlins, Marlins), Sosa has given us a chance to win each time out. Cox has carefully and gradually increased his pitch count (74,75,84,88), and Jorge has earned a rotation spot for the rest of the season. But Cox seems to prefer his hard throwers to stay in the bullpen, so we'll see what happens if/when all the starters come back (the very definition of an iffy proposition). Grade: A
Roman Colon -- Spent the early part of the season pining for his Richmond girlfriend or something, as he quickly wasted an opportunity to build on his late-season success last year. An 8.50 ERA sealed his fate, and Braves fans might be excused for thinking they'd never again have to say, "Ramon, err, ROMAN Colon". But faced with the specter of calling up Seth Greisinger again, Schuerholz gulped hard (New Journalism, Brave-O-Matic style!) and tabbed Colon for an emergency start. Lo and behold, Colon took a page from the Jorge Sosa Book of Unexpected Brilliance and shut down the powerful Orioles. His next start against the Marlins was less successful, but he still looked pretty good, and earned another start. This is probably how it will be for a while. Grade: C
John Smoltz -- Among ERA qualifiers, Smoltz ranks 5th in pitcher VORP, behind only Clemens, Willis, Oswalt, and Pedro. He's 3rd in IP (which is more than a little scary), tied for 4th in ERA, and 8th in Ks. Maybe we should have listened when he said he's been ready to start for two years now. He absolutely must stay healthy for the Braves to have a shot at winning #14. Grade: A+
Tim Hudson -- His oblique strain will keep him out for a couple more weeks. Considering this was a pre-existing condition that hasn't gone away, there's much cause for concern going forward. He's shown flashes of his old form, but his vaunted control has deserted him on several occasions, and his K rate of 5.36 per nine innings indicates that he's not the pitcher he once was. Grade: B-
Mike Hampton -- Another injury story, of course. "Forearm strain" is a sufficiently nebulous diagnosis that it's anyone's guess how to treat it or when it might get better. When healthy, Hampton was having a marvelous season, although he was doing it with mirrors somewhat. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .235, which means he was getting very lucky, and also has been the primary beneficiary of Furcal's defense. He's still not striking anyone out, but he's not walking anyone either, and is keeping the ball in the park. He won't have a 1.83 ERA at season's end, but he's crafty enough to be effective anyhow. Grade: Inc. (A- while healthy)
John Thomson -- He's hurt; stop me if you've heard this before. Another pitcher having a fine season -- along with Hampton, his early season success was a carryover from his post-All-Star performance last season. Although Hudson and Hampton are slated to return more quickly, I have greater confidence in Thomson being able to continue his success once he comes back. The finger ligament injury was a freak thing, but surgery should take care of it with no lasting effects, and presumably he's been able to stay in good shape in the meantime. After a slow start to his Braves tenure, Thomson has quietly asserted himself as a rotation rock, and here's hoping he decides to stick around. He's a Brave-O-Matic favorite. Grade: Inc. (B+ while healthy)
Horacio Ramirez -- Today's start against the Phillies exposed the main problem with Ramirez; that being, if you can't miss bats, sooner or later the bats are going to put a hurting on you. Horacio's K/9 rate of 2.79 ranks dead last among the 111 major league pitchers with enough innings to qualify, as does his 0.85 K/BB rate. That combination makes it impossible to succeed consistently. He's reached his ceiling as a major league pitcher. Comparisons to Glavine are completely off-base -- Glavine was striking out more than twice as many batters as Horacio at a comparable age. Health and confidence are Horacio's main attributes. If he can ride run support to 13 wins this year, perhaps the Braves could trick someone into taking him after the season -- the Tigers used to have entire pitching staffs of Horacio clones. Grade: D+
Kyle Davies -- Has encounted some tough times of late, but that can be attributed to a heavy workload at a tender age. He's got four quality pitches, but obviously needs more seasoning. I've harped enough about his usage pattern, because we've needed him, but he should be sent back to Richmond for the rest of the year, and monitored carefully, as soon as we can do so. He's done nothing to sully his rep as a top prospect. Grade: B
"Starting pitchers"
Jorge Sosa -- Sosa was quietly doing good work in medium-leverage situations out of the bullpen when our spate of injuries pressed him into starting duty, and he has not disappointed. Given four starts, all against quality lineups (Rangers, Reds, Marlins, Marlins), Sosa has given us a chance to win each time out. Cox has carefully and gradually increased his pitch count (74,75,84,88), and Jorge has earned a rotation spot for the rest of the season. But Cox seems to prefer his hard throwers to stay in the bullpen, so we'll see what happens if/when all the starters come back (the very definition of an iffy proposition). Grade: A
Roman Colon -- Spent the early part of the season pining for his Richmond girlfriend or something, as he quickly wasted an opportunity to build on his late-season success last year. An 8.50 ERA sealed his fate, and Braves fans might be excused for thinking they'd never again have to say, "Ramon, err, ROMAN Colon". But faced with the specter of calling up Seth Greisinger again, Schuerholz gulped hard (New Journalism, Brave-O-Matic style!) and tabbed Colon for an emergency start. Lo and behold, Colon took a page from the Jorge Sosa Book of Unexpected Brilliance and shut down the powerful Orioles. His next start against the Marlins was less successful, but he still looked pretty good, and earned another start. This is probably how it will be for a while. Grade: C
posted by Sam Bass | 10:31 PM
1 Comments:
Good stuff, Sam. I've duly added a bookmark and look forward to reading more of your stuff. You're right, I think Thomson is the only lock to return from the DL without lingering questions. We'll just have to wait and see about the other three
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