An Optimistic Mid-season Assessment
This is from Baseball Prospectus, a trusted source of baseball analysis and forecasting for many years. Let's not lose too much faith, Braves' fans!
As most of the baseball world begins to accept the idea that 2006 does, in fact, mark the end of an era, you won’t find much doom and gloom in this space today. Most everyone knows the Braves spent time in the cellar; in fact, they began the month of June by losing 18 of 20, and fell as deep as 16 games beneath the mighty Mets on June 26. If you’re keeping tabs on the Playoffs Odds Report, you may have noticed their chance of playing in October dip below one percent on June 25. If you want to see a Braves fan really cranky, tell him or her that Bobby Cox’s chances of raising his 15th straight “NL East Champs” flag are 250 to 1 as of Wednesday.
But really, what separates the 2006 Braves from the 2005 club? Apart from the exodus of Rafael Furcal and the subsequent Andy Marte/Edgar Renteria trade, it was a pretty quiet winter in Turnertown.
The ulcers caused by the bullpen are nothing new. Last year’s squad ranked 12th in the National League in bullpen ERA at 4.74, and this year’s ranks 11th at 4.68. Relief help might be the team’s greatest need approaching the deadline, but it doesn’t help explain the chasm between 2005 and 2006.
And despite the major drop-offs of Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, and Marcus Giles, the offense has shown great resilience. It’s scoring nearly five runs per game, better than it was in 2005, good for fifth in the NL through Wednesday. Renteria’s hitting around his 90th percentile PECOTA projection (a level from which he's likely to show some regression over the second half). On the flip side, PECOTA was optimistic about Francoeur and Giles, who are both playing close to their 10th percentile projections. Perennial Team Health Report red light Chipper Jones was holding up until this week, and while Will Carroll’s most recent report doesn’t sound too serious, how fortunate are the Braves to have Wilson Betemit? Since the start of 2005, Betemit’s hit .293/.350/.449 while playing third base, shortstop, and second. If the Braves weren’t so loaded at those positions, his numbers might look quite a bit more like Bill Hall’s in Milwaukee.
Adam LaRoche’s top three comparable players are Tino Martinez, Todd Helton, and Jason Giambi, but you wouldn’t know it from his performance. With LaRoche maintaining his severe platoon splits, perhaps the Braves are missing Julio Franco more than they thought they would. Brian Jordan, LaRoche’s nominal platoon partner who is currently on the disabled list, has a 564 OPS while playing first base this season, primarily against southpaws. Since Jordan bruised his clavicle, lefthanded hitter Scott Thorman has been filling in.
The rotation is where the disparity becomes clearer. No one is pitching outrageously badly, but almost every starter has slipped. John Smoltz’s peripherals are vintage John Smoltz, but a slightly elevated BABIP might help explain the ERA bump. Tim Hudson’s 4.57 ERA is easily the worst of his career, and more than a run higher than his career mark. John Thomson missed some time due to injury and is having his worst campaign since his days as a young Rockie in 1999. Jorge Sosa, he of the ridiculous 2.55 ERA last year, is back to normal and got moved to the bullpen, due in part to his poor showing in the rotation and in part to the demise of Chris Reitsma.
Chuck James, summoned from Richmond to replace Sosa, could make a notable difference. Pegged by PECOTA for a 4.42 ERA and nearly eight punchouts per inning. James won his first three starts, and is keeping up his extreme flyball tendencies, a hot button for James’ future that has caused plenty of internal debate among BP staff. Among pitchers who have tossed at least as many innings as James this year, James has the second-lowest groundball rate:
Pitcher IP GB% SO9
Keith Foulke 32.0 20.0 6.5
Chuck James 31.1 26.6 5.7
Jered Weaver 33.1 27.0 8.4
Rafael Soriano 43.2 27.0 9.9
Chris Young 103.2 30.4 8.3
With a pair of big wins over the Reds the last two nights, the Braves pulled within ten games of .500, but they’ve only been outscored by 12 runs on the season. Their odds for title number 15 are still quite long, but hey, the Mets just put Pedro Martinez on the disabled list. Between James, the potential for bounceback from the rest of the rotation, the upsides of Francoeur, Andruw Jones, and Giles, and the distinguished track record of trader John Schuerholz, don’t stick in a fork in the Braves just yet. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this team over their string of titles, we should know that a 13.5 game deficit shouldn’t faze them.
--Dave Haller
As most of the baseball world begins to accept the idea that 2006 does, in fact, mark the end of an era, you won’t find much doom and gloom in this space today. Most everyone knows the Braves spent time in the cellar; in fact, they began the month of June by losing 18 of 20, and fell as deep as 16 games beneath the mighty Mets on June 26. If you’re keeping tabs on the Playoffs Odds Report, you may have noticed their chance of playing in October dip below one percent on June 25. If you want to see a Braves fan really cranky, tell him or her that Bobby Cox’s chances of raising his 15th straight “NL East Champs” flag are 250 to 1 as of Wednesday.
But really, what separates the 2006 Braves from the 2005 club? Apart from the exodus of Rafael Furcal and the subsequent Andy Marte/Edgar Renteria trade, it was a pretty quiet winter in Turnertown.
The ulcers caused by the bullpen are nothing new. Last year’s squad ranked 12th in the National League in bullpen ERA at 4.74, and this year’s ranks 11th at 4.68. Relief help might be the team’s greatest need approaching the deadline, but it doesn’t help explain the chasm between 2005 and 2006.
And despite the major drop-offs of Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, and Marcus Giles, the offense has shown great resilience. It’s scoring nearly five runs per game, better than it was in 2005, good for fifth in the NL through Wednesday. Renteria’s hitting around his 90th percentile PECOTA projection (a level from which he's likely to show some regression over the second half). On the flip side, PECOTA was optimistic about Francoeur and Giles, who are both playing close to their 10th percentile projections. Perennial Team Health Report red light Chipper Jones was holding up until this week, and while Will Carroll’s most recent report doesn’t sound too serious, how fortunate are the Braves to have Wilson Betemit? Since the start of 2005, Betemit’s hit .293/.350/.449 while playing third base, shortstop, and second. If the Braves weren’t so loaded at those positions, his numbers might look quite a bit more like Bill Hall’s in Milwaukee.
Adam LaRoche’s top three comparable players are Tino Martinez, Todd Helton, and Jason Giambi, but you wouldn’t know it from his performance. With LaRoche maintaining his severe platoon splits, perhaps the Braves are missing Julio Franco more than they thought they would. Brian Jordan, LaRoche’s nominal platoon partner who is currently on the disabled list, has a 564 OPS while playing first base this season, primarily against southpaws. Since Jordan bruised his clavicle, lefthanded hitter Scott Thorman has been filling in.
The rotation is where the disparity becomes clearer. No one is pitching outrageously badly, but almost every starter has slipped. John Smoltz’s peripherals are vintage John Smoltz, but a slightly elevated BABIP might help explain the ERA bump. Tim Hudson’s 4.57 ERA is easily the worst of his career, and more than a run higher than his career mark. John Thomson missed some time due to injury and is having his worst campaign since his days as a young Rockie in 1999. Jorge Sosa, he of the ridiculous 2.55 ERA last year, is back to normal and got moved to the bullpen, due in part to his poor showing in the rotation and in part to the demise of Chris Reitsma.
Chuck James, summoned from Richmond to replace Sosa, could make a notable difference. Pegged by PECOTA for a 4.42 ERA and nearly eight punchouts per inning. James won his first three starts, and is keeping up his extreme flyball tendencies, a hot button for James’ future that has caused plenty of internal debate among BP staff. Among pitchers who have tossed at least as many innings as James this year, James has the second-lowest groundball rate:
Pitcher IP GB% SO9
Keith Foulke 32.0 20.0 6.5
Chuck James 31.1 26.6 5.7
Jered Weaver 33.1 27.0 8.4
Rafael Soriano 43.2 27.0 9.9
Chris Young 103.2 30.4 8.3
With a pair of big wins over the Reds the last two nights, the Braves pulled within ten games of .500, but they’ve only been outscored by 12 runs on the season. Their odds for title number 15 are still quite long, but hey, the Mets just put Pedro Martinez on the disabled list. Between James, the potential for bounceback from the rest of the rotation, the upsides of Francoeur, Andruw Jones, and Giles, and the distinguished track record of trader John Schuerholz, don’t stick in a fork in the Braves just yet. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this team over their string of titles, we should know that a 13.5 game deficit shouldn’t faze them.
--Dave Haller
posted by M Norman Carnathan | 8:21 AM
1 Comments:
I agree completely. I think we've expressed similar notions here on the 'Matic, but it's good to see that a professional agrees.
Gotta love the way our hitters closed out the first half.
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